Saturday, December 04, 2004

Nothing to worry about, really, but I'm just saying.....

RAY ALLEN
First 8 games
Field Goals: 77 for 149 (51.7%)
3-Pointers: 31 for 52 (59.6%)
Free Throws: 34 for 38 (89.5%)
Total Points: 219
PSA: 1.32

Last 9 games
Field Goals: 54 for 151 (35.8%)
3-pointers: 15 for 50 (30%)
Free Throws: 77 for 82 (93.9%)
Total Points: 200
PSA: 1.07

A friend asked me the other day why I'm so obsessed about these stats, points per shot attempt and points per possession. The best way I can explain it, and the way I first had it explained to me, is by illustrating how absurd it is to use field-goal percentage to evaluate offensive efficiency.

Let's take football, for example. There are three ways an offense can score in football: a touchdown, a point after touchdown, and a field goal. A touchdown is worth 6 points, a PAT is worth 1 point, and a field goal is worth 3 points. Clear enough, right?

Well imagine, then, if offenses in football were ranked according to the number of times they scored -- without accounting for HOW they scored. In other words, a touchdown would be counted the same as a field goal, a field goal would be counted the same as an extra point, and so on.

So, for example, let's say in Week 12 the Colts scored 5 touchdowns on 10 possessions and the Patriots scored 5 field goals on 10 possessions. They each scored five times in 10 tries, so their scoring percentages would be identical -- 50%.

Obviously, that's a load of dinosaur crap. The Colts, although they scored the same number of times as the Patriots, were also a hell of a lot more efficient and scored a lot more points, 20 more, because of a fundamental rule in football's scoring system: a touchdown is worth more than a field goal, 6 points to 3. Using scoring percentage as an evaluative tool, though, both offenses appear equally efficient.

Basically, that's why field-goal percentage in basketball doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot when you're assessing the value of a scorer. It ignores the existence of the 3-point field goal, which is the bread and butter of a handful of offenses in the NBA today, namely the Seattle Sonics, and treats every basket from the field as one in the same.

I for the life of me can't understand why the official statisticians at the NBA haven't caught on to this considering the 3-pointer has been a part of the league for over 30 years now.

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