Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Let's go ahead and say this while we're high on D-Wade: He is in his second season what Kobe Bryant was in his sixth.

With the help of basketball-reference.com, here's a comparison of their age 23 seasons, Wade's 2004-05 and Bryant's 2001-02:

PER GAME
Minutes
Wade: 38.62
Bryant: 38.29

Field Goals Made / Attempted
Wade: 8.18 / 17.12 (47.8%)
Bryant: 9.36 / 19.96 (46.9%)

Free Throws Made / Attempted
Wade: 7.55 / 9.90 (76.2%)
Bryant: 6.10 / 7.36 (82.9%)

Rebounds (Offensive / Defensive)
Wade: 5.16 (1.43 / 3.73)
Bryant: 5.51 (1.40 / 4.11)

Assists
Wade: 6.75
Bryant: 5.47

Steals
Wade: 1.57
Bryant: 1.48

Blocks
Wade: 1.06
Bryant: 0.44

Points
Wade: 24.08
Bryant: 25.24

OTHER SEMI-SIMILARITIES
Effective Field Goal%
Wade: 48.3%
Bryant: 47.9%

True Shooting%
Wade: 56.1%
Bryant: 54.4%

Points Per Shot Attempt
Wade: 1.12
Bryant: 1.09

Rebound Rate
Wade: 7.8
Bryant: 7.9

Of course, there are some obvious differences:

--Wade attacked the basket much more frequently than Bryant; his FT/FGA was .578, Bryant's was .369. I can say with near certainty that Wade led all non-big men in this category in 2005, and by a pretty large margin.

--Both were horrendous from 3-point range -- Wade 28.9%, Bryant 25.0% -- and generally avoided shooting 3-pointers, but about 8 percent of Bryant's field goal attempts were 3-pointers, compared to only 3 percent for Wade.

--Wade's assist rate exceeded Bryant's by 3.4 per 100 possessions.

--Attacking the basket is Wade's m.o. and it's what makes him great, but it also caused him to have an awful turnover rate of 12.9. Bryant's was 8.9, a great rate.

(If I knew how to make a table, I would've made one.)

Free Throws Per Field Goal Attempt
Wade: .578
Bryant: .369

Three-Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempts
Wade: 45 / 1318 (.034)
Bryant: 132 / 1597 (.083)

Assist Rates
Wade: 20.8
Bryant: 17.4

Turnover Rates
Wade: 12.9
Bryant: 8.9

Assuming Wade can at least maintain his improved shooting accuracy -- and that's hardly a guarantee -- here are four things he needs to do to take his game to the next level:

--Cut down his turnover rate. Watching his style of play, you can see why he's so prone to turning the ball over. The best way I can describe his game is that it seems his goal 90% of the time is to drive close enough to the rim that he can shoot a layup. He succeeds most of the time, probably more than any guard in the league, but it also causes him to commit loads of turnovers.
Of course, he's still only 23, and all young players have obscene turnover rates. Generally speaking, they reduce the rates with experience, as they improve their court vision and decision-making skills and cut down on the stupid passes. That's gonna be key for Wade.

--Add the 3-pointer to his offensive arsenal. This would not only help his already good scoring efficiency, but practically speaking, it would open up a lot more scoring opportunities for him, with defenders having to respect his ability to shoot the 3. Already a nightmare off the dribble, it would basically make him impossible to guard, like my friend Anie. (Shout out.)
You can already see that he has a decent shooting stroke from mid-range. There's no reason why he couldn't improve from behind the arc.

--Improve his free throw percentage. This would give his production a huge boost, since he has such an unbelievable ability to get to the free throw line. Adding a few points to his free throw percentage, which was an OK but not great 76% this season, and improving his 3-point shot could make him a scoring champ.

--Use even more of his team's possessions, or in other words, shoulder an even bigger role on the offensive end. In 2004-05, Wade used 29.0 percent of his team's possessions, up from 23.6 percent the season before. If he's to be The Man on the Heat next season, the rate should be over 30.

If Kobe really is one of Wade's best comps, Wade should take a pretty huge leap forward next season. Kobe's age 24 season was the most productive of his career, largely because he increased his 3-point attempts from 2.1 to 4.6 per game, increased his 3-point percentage from 25% to 38%, and increased his usage rate from 28.6 to 31.1.

That 38% Kobe shot is beginning to look like an outlier -- err, actually his entire age 24 season is looking like one -- but if Wade can even improve his 3-point percentage to something around 32 or 33%, it would be a big boost. I'm not suggesting he should begin hoisting 3-pointers indiscriminately, a la Antoine Walker, but since he's a guard, it's an addition that could only help his overall game and production. (Unless, of course, he pulls a Jordan and ends up shooting 50-52% from the field.)

The main thing, though, is that he needs to reduce those turnovers.

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